Goldman sees Trump immigration moves shaving US economic growth
President Donald Trump’s immigration restrictions are set to have a somewhat negative impact on US economic and labor force growth, with an even more limited effect on inflation, according to Goldman Sachs Group economists.
The analysts see net immigration to the US plummeting to 750,000 a year, shaving 30-40 basis points off potential gross domestic product growth this year, according to the baseline scenario in a research note published Monday. Last year, 2.8 million people immigrated to the US, according to the Census Bureau.
The makeup of migrants would also change, with Goldman seeing zero net unauthorized immigrants as half a million deportations a year offset the estimated number of asylum seekers and other entrants.
Trump has already begun executing his promised crackdown on immigration, ramping up the detention and deportation of migrants, and he has sent flights of undocumented people to home countries including Colombia and India.